In the December edition of the Velera Payments Index, we saw that year-over-year consumer spending growth remained consistent and positive in November. Consumer sentiment surveys showed mixed results, as concerns about high prices remain.

According to the Consumer Confidence Index, consumer confidence fell by 6.9 points to 88.7. The December 2025 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased 2.3 points to 53.3. Despite the 4.5% increase, primarily driven by younger consumers, the overall outlook remains bleak.

This month’s edition also featured a Deep Dive into the international transactions in the Goods sector and an update on 2025 holiday spending.

Key Takeaways

Key takeaways from this edition of the Payments Index include:

While consumer sentiment showed mixed results, actual purchasing activity continued to grow consistently in November. Debit purchases increased by 4.2%, with the Goods and Money Services sectors accounting for 80% of that growth. Credit purchases were up 1.9%, with the Goods and Services sectors accounting for just under 80% of the increase. For November, year-over-year growth in debit transactions was up 2.3% and credit transactions increased by 2%.
Consumers spent record amounts online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday (Nov. 27 through Dec. 1), building on the strong holiday performance in 2024. Overall debit purchases increased by 1.1% and debit purchases in the Goods sector rose by 3.8% within the Payments Index dataset for this intensive five-day spending period. Overall credit purchases increased by 0.2%, while credit purchases in the Goods sector decreased by 0.1%.
There was a drop in International Goods credit purchase growth coinciding with the initial tariff announcements in April, followed by an even steeper decline in growth after the elimination of the de minimis exemption in late August. This trend was especially evident when looking at eBay — which represents the largest share of credit transactions and purchases from merchants outside of the U.S. In addition to the initial drop and then steep decline in late August, the widening gap between international eBay transaction and purchase growth from September through November reflects consumers shying away from lower-cost items after the tariffs went into effect.
In a highly anticipated move, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December. While multiple sets of updated data will be available by the January meeting, a pause in subsequent rate changes may occur, as growing dissent among the voting committee is evident.
For November, the ADP private-sector jobs report showed a decrease in U.S. private employment by 32,000. In the November jobs report, the BLS posted an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest rate in four years. While the economy added 64,000 jobs in November, it lost 105,000 jobs in October, which could highlight a weakness that could point to future interest rate reductions.

Checking In: Holiday Season

This month’s check-in explored both the five-day peak holiday shopping period and the isolated month of November. According to Adobe Analytics, consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday and $14.25 billion online on Cyber Monday. While the November data may appear softer than expected, growth is likely to pick up in December, which includes Cyber Monday.

Consumer preferences continued to shift, with Adobe reporting that 57.5% of online sales came through mobile devices on Cyber Monday – up 8% year over year – signaling a greater influence of AI and social media on buying decisions, leading to increased impulse buying. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) usage hit an all-time high, driving over $1 billion in online spending on Cyber Monday.

In November, credit purchases in the Goods sector increased by 2.2% compared to November 2024, surpassing the October result of 1.8%. Year-over-year growth in debit purchases increased by 7.4%, a decrease from the 8% reported in October.

As seen in previous years, performance varied between the Amazon, Walmart and Target, the three featured large retailers. Amazon and Walmart had positive growth in both debit and credit purchases, while Target experienced negative growth during November and the cumulative two-month holiday season.

What Should Credit Unions Do Now?

To maintain relevance and support members in the ever-changing economic environment, credit unions should consider the following strategies:

Reimagine your digital banking experience. Members expect seamless, personalized interactions across every digital touchpoint. Credit unions must benchmark their digital experience, identify gaps and build a strategic roadmap to drive member engagement and loyalty, as well as to compete effectively in this dynamic digital landscape.
Re-engage members and drive portfolio growth. As consumer spending rebounds after the post-holiday slowdown, now is the perfect time to focus your card marketing efforts on strengthening credit and debit card retention through member re-engagement.
Turn financial anxiety into engagement. Younger consumers feel like they face financial challenges that previous generations did not. Credit unions should normalize financial struggles and offer practical solutions to increase relevance, position themselves as trusted partners in financial wellness and attract a new generation of prospective members. Leverage platform-specific social strategies, authentic messaging and community-focused content.

Looking Ahead

The January edition of the Velera Payments Index will report on the rush of final spending during the last month of holiday shopping.