Key Takeaways:

Growth in debit remained consistent, while growth in credit activity improved in September. Debit purchases increased by 5.3%, with the Goods, Services and Money Services sectors accounting for 89% of the growth. The only decline was in Grocery. Credit purchases were up 2.9%, with the Service, Goods and Restaurant sectors accounting for 86% of the entire increase. For September, debit transactions were up 3.4% and credit transactions rose by 2.4%.
Impacted by the U.S. government shutdown, the September BLS data for CPI and job growth/unemployment were not published. This provides less visibility of key economic indicators for the Federal Reserve in their late October meeting. Tentative rate reductions were identified for the two remaining 2025 FOMC meetings.
As an alternative to the BLS jobs report, the September ADP private-sector jobs report showed a reduction in U.S. private employment jobs by 32,000. Earlier this year, the ADP jobs report was one of the first to identify monthly job reductions.

What Credit Unions Should Do Now:

As credit card delinquencies remain elevated — and tend to rise during the holiday season — now is the time to explore resources that can support or supplement your credit union’s collection efforts. With inflation putting additional strain on financial institutions, managing delinquency and collections in-house is becoming increasingly challenging. Financial institutions that partner with trusted experts and invest in data-driven, borrower-focused strategies will be best positioned to navigate this evolving environment.
In response to rising delinquencies and charge-offs, many credit unions have scaled back their efforts to generate new accounts. However, sustained growth in credit and debit portfolios depends on a strong pipeline of new accounts. Now is the time to refocus on acquisition strategies: review underwriting policies, regularly score credit card accounts and implement account management practices such as authorization decisioning and credit line adjustments.
To navigate today’s economic landscape, credit unions should take proactive steps to protect portfolio health and deepen member relationships, such as deploying predictive analytics to anticipate financial hardships and enable early intervention, responding to Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) trends and integrating peer-to-peer (P2P) payments into existing digital ecosystems.